WLY(000858) EBSCN·2024-11-01 00:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 67.916 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.931 billion yuan, up 9.19% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue growth was slower, with a total revenue of 17.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 1.39% [1][2]. - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend rate of no less than 70% and at least 20 billion yuan annually (including tax) [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue growth slowed significantly compared to the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. The overall consumption environment remains weak, prompting the company to focus on healthy development and proactive adjustments [2]. - The company continues to prioritize price stability over volume growth, with limited contribution from the new product line. However, other products like 1618 and low-alcohol variants have shown relatively strong revenue growth [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 76.17%, an increase of 2.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to new pricing strategies. The net profit margin remained stable at 34.02% [3]. - Cash flow from operating activities for Q3 was 16.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.0%, supported by improved cash collection from sales [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward to 33.17 billion, 36.10 billion, and 39.25 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.2%, 5.7%, and 8.5% respectively from previous estimates. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 8.55, 9.30, and 10.11 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 16, and 15 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4].