YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 海通证券·2024-11-01 00:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 increased by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 15.6% year-on-year. The revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 were 106.63 billion and 11.41 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.5% and 27% [4][5] - The coal business is expected to compensate for price declines through volume increases, with production from the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions and Australia contributing to a 9% year-on-year increase in output [5][6] - The report projects that the company's coal production target for 2024 will continue to grow, with a medium to long-term strategy aiming for an annual production scale of 300 million tons. Coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a mid-high range, and the coal chemical sector is anticipated to improve [6][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit was 3.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.75 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year but up 3.3% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced and sold 105.81 million and 96.22 million tons of coal, respectively, marking an 8.8% and 9% increase year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in the first three quarters was 663 yuan per ton, down 16.5% year-on-year, while the unit cost was 362 yuan per ton, down 2.4% year-on-year [5][6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.744 billion, 16.209 billion, and 16.912 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57, 1.61, and 1.68 yuan [6][11] - The report assigns a PE ratio of 11 to 12 times for 2024, suggesting a reasonable value range of 17.25 to 18.82 yuan per share [6][11] Business Segments - The coal segment is projected to see a total revenue of 949.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 24.99% [9] - The coal chemical segment is expected to generate 72.4 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.04% [9]