CSSC Holdings(600150) 申万宏源·2024-11-01 00:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was CNY 20.152 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 858 million, a year-on-year decrease of 57.26%. The gross margin improved to 11.62%, up 2.74 percentage points from the previous quarter, aligning with expectations [1] - High-priced orders are beginning to be delivered, leading to gradual improvements in both revenue and cost. The average steel price for orders delivered in 2024 and 2025 is expected to decrease by 20% and 6% respectively, contributing to a dual improvement in revenue and costs [1] - The shipyard's revenue and delivery volume are entering an upward trend, with significant year-on-year increases in delivery volume and revenue for various shipyards under the company [1] - The shipbuilding industry remains robust, with a continuous increase in the value of orders held by the company, which is projected to reach approximately USD 28.1 billion [1] - The estimated market capitalization range for the merged entity of the company and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is between CNY 290.2 billion and CNY 424.7 billion, based on current order values [1] - The profit forecast has been revised downwards, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at CNY 4 billion, CNY 8.1 billion, and CNY 12.2 billion respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 43, 21, and 14 [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at CNY 70.206 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.2% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is expected to be CNY 4.042 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.7% [2] - The gross margin for 2024E is projected to be 14.7%, increasing to 22.8% by 2026E [2] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.7% in 2024E to 16.7% in 2026E [2] Market Data - As of October 30, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was CNY 38.65, with a market capitalization of CNY 172.859 billion [3] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.5, and the dividend yield is 0.52% [3] Basic Data - The company's total assets-liabilities ratio is 69.88%, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [4] - The total share capital is 4.472 billion shares, all of which are A-shares [4]