Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China XLX Fertiliser [1][7][19] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.534 billion, representing an 80.7% year-on-year increase, while operating income was RMB 17.420 billion, down 0.6% year-on-year [1][4] - The growth in performance is attributed to a decline in costs leading to a 5% year-on-year increase in gross profit, alongside a stable production line that effectively reduced overall energy consumption, resulting in a gross margin increase to 19% [1][4] - The company has also seen significant sales increases in major products, with urea sales volume up 33% year-on-year and methanol sales volume up 17% year-on-year [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the average price of urea was RMB 2,029 per tonne, down 14% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 2.768 million tonnes [5] - The average price of compound fertiliser remained flat at RMB 2,679 per tonne, with sales volume stable at 1.734 million tonnes, while gross margin increased by 5% year-on-year to 17% [5] - The company expects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be RMB 1.18, 1.28, and 1.42 respectively, with a target price of HKD 5.16 based on a PE of 4.02 for 2024 [7][19] Project Development - Ongoing projects include the Xinjiang paraformaldehyde project, expected to complete by the end of 2024, and the Jiangxi Jiujiang industry chain extension project, anticipated to commence operations in Q3 2025 [6][7] - The Zhundong project and Guangxi Base Big Project are also progressing as planned, with expected completion dates in 2025 and 2026 respectively [6][7]
中国心连心化肥：前三季度归母净利润同比增长80.7%，主要产品销量大幅增长