中国船舶：扣非净利润同比高增，手持订单结构改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in non-recurring net profit, achieving CNY 1.972 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 561% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached CNY 56.2 billion, up 13.12% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.35% to CNY 2.271 billion [1]. - The report highlights an improvement in the structure of the company's order backlog and an increase in gross profit margins for delivered vessels [1]. - The global new orders in September showed a year-on-year decline of 55%, but the cumulative new orders from January to September increased by 31% [2]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% for revenue and 71% for net profit from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at CNY 0.85, CNY 1.66, and CNY 2.49 for the respective years [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a sales gross margin of 9.41%, down 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 4.20%, down 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a sales gross margin of 11.62%, down 4.91 percentage points year-on-year, but up 2.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Order and Market Trends - In September, the global new orders totaled 5.33 million deadweight tons, with a significant drop in oil and bulk carrier orders, while container ship orders increased by 224% year-on-year [2]. - The report notes that the price index for new ships has shown a marginal increase, with container ship prices rising by 1.3% to 1.8% over the past three months [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is CNY 83.43 billion, with net profit expected to reach CNY 3.8 billion, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. - The report adjusts previous estimates for net profit, reflecting changes in expense ratios and asset impairment losses [3].