LFX(600612) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 04:43Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] - Target price adjusted to 61.12 RMB (previously 70.50 RMB) [3][5] Core Views - Performance below expectations due to high gold prices impacting terminal sales and franchisee purchasing willingness [2][3] - Gross margin under pressure due to increased discounts and higher proportion of gold bars in sales [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 126.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 41.89% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 3.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% [3] - State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing, with potential for performance elasticity [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 525.82 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.60% [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.95%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 3.82/4.21/4.57 RMB, down from previous estimates of 4.70/5.20/5.70 RMB [3] Sales and Profitability - Sales structure and promotional discounts have put pressure on gross margins [3] - Operating expense ratio increased by 1.03 percentage points to 2.61% in Q3 2024 [3] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios increased by +0.27pct/+0.60pct/+0.03pct/+0.14pct respectively [3] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The company is advancing comprehensive reforms under the "Double Hundred Action" initiative [3] - Implementation of a professional manager system is expected to enhance performance elasticity [3] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 49.15 RMB [5] - 52-week price range is 47.10-86.19 RMB [6] - Market capitalization is 25.711 billion RMB [6] - PE ratio for 2024 is 12.87x, with a PB ratio of 2.01x [10] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include China Gold, Caibai, Laopu Gold, and Mankalun, with an average 2024 PE of 20.44x [11] - The company's 2024 PE valuation is set at 16x, lower than the industry average [11]