京沪高铁：核心线位奠定中长期成长性，票价改革提升盈利能力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance for 2024 showed a slight decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 11.493 billion yuan, down 0.94% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.658 billion yuan, down 3.17% year-on-year. However, the first three quarters of 2024 saw revenue growth of 4.77% year-on-year, reaching 32.355 billion yuan, and net profit growth of 12.35%, totaling 10.015 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights that while national railway passenger volume increased slightly, the average travel distance decreased, impacting short-term performance. The first three quarters of 2024 saw a 13.8% year-on-year increase in national railway passenger volume, totaling 3.338 billion people, but a 1.35% decline in passenger turnover [5]. - The report emphasizes ongoing railway market reforms, particularly in ticket pricing mechanisms, which are expected to improve profitability. The introduction of flexible pricing on certain high-speed rail lines is anticipated to enhance passenger load factors and financial performance [6][5]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, projecting net profits of 13.873 billion yuan, 16.207 billion yuan, and 18.781 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 30, 2024, is 5.66 yuan, with a one-year high of 6.61 yuan and a low of 4.63 yuan. The market capitalization is approximately 277.943 billion yuan [2][3]. Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's net asset value per share is 4.07 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 21.38% [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 46.519 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 13.873 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.2% [7][9].