精锻科技：业绩短期承压，静待新品放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][15]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to a decline in export business and domestic fuel vehicle sales, but there is potential for recovery as cost pressures ease and export business improves [1][4]. - The gross margin has shown a slight recovery, and expense management remains stable, indicating a potential for performance improvement in the future [1][4]. - The company is expanding its product categories and customer base, with a focus on overseas markets, which is expected to drive future growth [1][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 116 million yuan, down 38.28% year-on-year [1][4]. - For Q3 2024, revenue was 460 million yuan, a decline of 17.52% year-on-year and 8.59% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 23 million yuan, down 62.45% year-on-year and 51.72% quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. Margin and Expense Management - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 23.88%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year but a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 0.87%, 6.96%, 5.87%, and 4.35% respectively, showing a year-on-year increase across all categories [1][4]. Product and Market Expansion - The company is transitioning from supplying single gears to complete differential assemblies and is also expanding into lightweight chassis components [1][10]. - The company has secured orders from various clients, including domestic brands and new energy vehicle manufacturers, indicating a diversification of its customer base [1][12]. - The overseas expansion includes a factory in Thailand, which is expected to start production in Q1 2025, potentially opening new growth avenues [1][14]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 230 million, 290 million, and 360 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.59, and 0.74 yuan [1][15].