中远海能：油运需求偏弱，运价下行拖累盈利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][10]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 810 million RMB for Q3 2024, which is a decline of 10.9% quarter-on-quarter and 41.0% year-on-year, falling short of expectations [3]. - The overall net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.42 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [3]. - The report anticipates continued weak demand in the international oil transportation market, with freight rates expected to remain flat in Q4 [3]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of oil tankers is expected to tighten gradually from 2025 to 2026, which may lead to a recovery in freight rates as demand improves [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Business - The international crude oil transportation business generated a gross profit of 1.42 billion RMB in the first three quarters, down 29.9% year-on-year. Q3 gross profit was 140 million RMB, a significant decline of 56.9% quarter-on-quarter and 78.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling freight rates [4]. - China's crude oil imports decreased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to September, with a 3.7% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCC from the Middle East to China (TD3C) in Q3 fell by 10.1% quarter-on-quarter and 37.9% year-on-year [4]. Product Oil Transportation Business - The international product oil transportation business achieved a gross profit of 820 million RMB in the first three quarters, an increase of 23.8% year-on-year. However, Q3 gross profit was 170 million RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 46.6% [5]. - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BCTI) average for Q3 decreased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and 26.0% year-on-year [5]. Domestic Oil Transportation and LNG Business - The domestic oil transportation market remains stable, with a gross profit of 1.13 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year. Q3 gross profit was 410 million RMB, up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The LNG business reported a net profit of 680 million RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, attributed to fleet expansion [6]. Profit Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - The profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been reduced by 23%, 21%, and 15% respectively, to 4.30 billion RMB, 5.38 billion RMB, and 6.11 billion RMB [7]. - The target price has been adjusted downwards by 12% and 9% to 9.20 HKD and 16.00 RMB respectively, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].