华熙生物：业务与管理变革进程令盈利端承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Huaxi Biotech (688363 CH) with a target price of RMB 62 1, implying a potential upside of 3 7% from the current price of RMB 59 9 [2][9] Core Views - Huaxi Biotech's functional skincare business and management restructuring are still ongoing, leading to a 7 1% YoY decline in 3Q24 revenue and a 77% YoY drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company's skincare business is expected to take a longer time to complete its transformation, with 3Q24 skincare revenue down 22% YoY, though the decline narrowed from 1H24 (-30%) [1] - The medical aesthetics business is driving growth, with 3Q24 revenue up 10% YoY, supported by new product launches and clear channel strategies [1] - Management expenses rose significantly in 3Q24 due to increased backend costs and consulting fees, leading to a 5 1ppt decline in core operating profit margin [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 5,741 million, down 5 5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decline 30 6% YoY to RMB 411 million [4][5] - The company's gross margin improved to 72 4% in 3Q24, up 1 3ppt YoY, driven by higher-margin medical aesthetics products [1] - Operating cash flow is expected to improve, with 2024E operating cash flow projected at RMB 917 million, up from RMB 700 million in 2023 [6] Business Segments - Skincare business: Revenue declined 22% YoY in 3Q24, but the company has launched new products focusing on functional sugar and cell biology, aiming to stabilize Q4 revenue [1] - Medical aesthetics business: Revenue grew 10% YoY in 3Q24, with new products expected to drive further growth in 2025 [1] - Raw materials business: Revenue remained flat in 3Q24, while the medical terminal business became the only growth driver [1] Valuation and Market Performance - The target price of RMB 62 1 is based on an upward revision due to the rising valuation center of the cosmetics industry [1] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 70 1x, reflecting the market's expectation of future growth [4] - The stock's 52-week price range is RMB 44 7-84 6, with a current market cap of RMB 28,843 million [2]