中国船舶：三季报点评：三季报扣非大幅盈利，静待毛利率改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 56.169 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.35% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability, with a notable increase in non-recurring profit, indicating a positive trend in earnings recovery [1][2]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was reported at 9.41%, a slight decline of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for improvement as low-price orders from previous years are cleared [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 56.169 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.12% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.271 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.35% [1]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was 9.41%, down 1.63 percentage points from the previous year [1][2]. Order and Market Trends - The company secured 109 new orders for civil vessels, totaling 855.77 million deadweight tons and 68.425 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase in tonnage of 38.21% [2]. - The proportion of green vessels in new orders exceeded 50%, and high-end vessels accounted for over 70% of new orders, indicating a trend towards higher quality and sustainability [2][3]. - The total backlog of civil vessel orders stood at 322 vessels, amounting to 199.639 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase in tonnage of 22.15% [2]. Industry Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with improved profitability anticipated as high-price orders from 2022 onwards are delivered [3][4]. - The report suggests that the company, as a core asset of the shipbuilding industry, will benefit significantly from this recovery, with expectations for accelerated profit recovery starting in 2025 [3][4].