LI AUTO(02015) 交银国际证券·2024-11-01 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 120.34, indicating a potential upside of 12.0% from the current price of HKD 107.40 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed strong revenue growth of 23.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 428.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [1][3]. - The guidance for Q4 2024 indicates a slight increase in delivery volume to 160,000-170,000 vehicles, but revenue expectations suggest a continued decline in average selling price (ASP) to around RMB 260,000 [2][3]. - The company is facing short-term pressure due to the absence of new model launches, which may impact sales in Q4 [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 428.7 billion, with a gross margin of 20.9%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 28.1 billion in Q3 2024, significantly above market forecasts [1]. - For the full year 2023, revenue is projected to reach RMB 123.851 billion, with a net profit of RMB 11.704 billion, marking a substantial recovery from a net loss of RMB 2.012 billion in 2022 [6][9]. Sales and Production Insights - Q3 2024 vehicle sales reached 153,000 units, a 40.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, supported by the L6 model's strong performance [1][7]. - The ASP for Q3 2024 was RMB 274,000, reflecting a decrease due to the higher sales proportion of the lower-priced L6 model [1][2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is expected to face increased competition in the mid-to-large SUV market, particularly with the anticipated launch of new models from competitors [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for further price reductions in Q4 to maintain competitiveness, especially with the L6 model's growing market share [2].