宏观经济月报（2024年10月）：海外延续“美强欧弱”，中国政策系统性转向

Overseas Economy - The US economy continues to expand steadily, with Q3 GDP growth revised up to 3.4% and full-year growth expected to exceed 2.5%[26] - The European economy is slowing down, with inflation cooling significantly and the ECB implementing its third rate cut of the year, with potential for accelerated cuts in the future[2] - Japan's economy is showing signs of weakening, with political turmoil affecting rate hike expectations, though long-term rate hikes remain likely[2] Chinese Economy - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.6%, slightly above market expectations, but growth has slowed for two consecutive quarters due to weak domestic demand[2] - Industrial production accelerated in September, with industrial output up 5.4% YoY, driven by new industries and export growth[48] - Fixed asset investment rose 1.4% YoY in September, with infrastructure investment surging 11.3% to 17.5%, the highest monthly growth this year[50] Financial Situation - New RMB loans in September totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, significantly below seasonal levels, reflecting weak economic growth[2] - M2 money supply grew 6.8% YoY in September, driven by non-bank and corporate deposits, while M1 growth fell to -7.4%, indicating weak economic activity[2] - Social financing increased by 3.76 trillion yuan in September, supported by accelerated government bond issuance, but corporate bond financing declined[59] Fiscal Situation - Fiscal revenue rebounded in September, with non-tax revenue surging 25.2% YoY, while tax revenue remained weak, down 5.0% YoY[62] - Fiscal expenditure accelerated in September, up 5.2% YoY, with infrastructure and social welfare spending increasing significantly[63] - The fiscal deficit for the first nine months narrowed, with revenue and expenditure growth rates improving, but budget completion progress remains slow[64] Macro Policy - The central bank introduced two structural policy tools to support the capital market, including a 300 billion yuan special relending facility for stock buybacks[66] - The 1-year and 5-year LPR rates were cut by 25 basis points, the largest reduction this year, aimed at lowering financing costs and stabilizing the property market[68] - The central bank launched a new open market operation tool, the buyout-style reverse repo, to enhance liquidity management and provide more policy flexibility[70]