PETROCHINA(601857) 海通证券·2024-11-01 10:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of 10.82-12.48 yuan for 2024, based on a PB multiple of 1.3-1.5x [1][20] Core Views - The company achieved a YoY net profit growth of 0.7% in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue of 2,256.279 billion yuan, down 1.1% YoY [4][8] - Despite a 7.43% QoQ decline in Brent crude prices in Q3 2024, the company managed to achieve a 2.29% QoQ growth in net profit, reaching 43.911 billion yuan [5] - The upstream oil and gas business remains the primary profit driver, with a 4.7% YoY revenue growth and 8.7% YoY operating profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [5][10] Business Segment Analysis Oil & Gas and New Energy Business - Revenue for the segment reached 678.452 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 4.7% YoY, with operating profit of 144.262 billion yuan, up 8.7% YoY [5] - The segment's EBIT per barrel improved sequentially, reaching 16.80 USD/barrel in Q3 2024, up from 15.22 USD/barrel in Q2 2024 [5][11] - Oil and gas equivalent production grew 3.61% YoY in Q3 2024, with natural gas production up 7.03% YoY [13][14] Refining and Chemical Business - Revenue for the segment grew 2.3% YoY to 923.888 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, but operating profit declined to 15.280 billion yuan [6][15] - The segment's EBIT per barrel decreased to 0.67 USD/barrel in Q3 2024, down from 2.24 USD/barrel in Q2 2024, due to lower crude prices and weak downstream demand [15] - Crude oil processing volume in Q3 2024 declined 7.47% YoY to 46.4068 million tons [16] Natural Gas Sales Business - Revenue for the segment grew 8.2% YoY to 424.855 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with operating profit up 57.92 billion yuan YoY to 25.268 billion yuan [6][18] - The segment's profitability improved due to effective cost control and lower import costs [18] Financial Forecasts - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.92, 0.95, and 0.98 yuan, respectively, with 2024 BPS estimated at 8.32 yuan [1][20] - Revenue is expected to grow 3.8% YoY in 2024, reaching 3,125.8 billion yuan, with net profit projected at 169.0 billion yuan, up 4.9% YoY [7][23] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable at around 11.1% in 2024 [7][23]