Baosteel(600019) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 11:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 242.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.882 billion yuan, down 29.56% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.338 billion yuan, which represents a quarter-on-quarter decline of 48.92% and a year-on-year decline of 64.78%, slightly below expectations [1] - Due to overall weak industry demand, the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 9.096 billion yuan, 10.286 billion yuan, and 12.147 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.41 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.55 yuan [1] - The target price has been raised to 7.97 yuan from the previous 7.06 yuan, based on a valuation of 0.80 times PB for 2025 [1][5] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's steel price decline was greater than that of raw material prices, further squeezing profit margins in the steel industry [1] - The total profit in the black metal smelting and rolling industry for January to September 2024 was a loss of 34.1 billion yuan, with a profit per ton of steel at approximately -32.65 yuan, down 54.80 yuan year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit per ton of steel for the first three quarters of 2024 was 152.78 yuan, which, despite a year-on-year decline of 28.70%, is still 185.43 yuan higher than the industry average [1] Product Structure Optimization - The total steel sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 38.50 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21% [1] - The sales volume of high-value-added products under the "1+1+N" product strategy reached 22.54 million tons, an increase of 223,000 tons year-on-year, with oriented silicon steel sales increasing by 27.5% [1] - The company has actively expanded its overseas market, achieving a record high export contract volume of 4.66 million tons in the first three quarters [1] Share Buyback and Incentive Mechanism - On October 16, 2023, the company announced a plan to repurchase A-shares using 3 billion yuan of its own funds [1] - As of October 15, 2024, the company completed the buyback, acquiring approximately 405 million shares, accounting for about 1.84% of its total share capital, at an average price of 6.16 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.492 billion yuan [1] - The repurchased shares will be used for future stock incentive plans, which will help establish a long-term incentive mechanism and demonstrate the company's confidence in its long-term development [1]