JHCC(002484) 民生证券·2024-11-01 12:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure, with both revenue and net profit declining year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - The capacitor industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with demand fluctuations [1] - Film capacitors and supercapacitors have broad application prospects, especially in the new energy vehicle sector [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 719 million, 893 million, and 1,079 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 14, and 12 times [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 1,175 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.94% [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.98% [1] - Q3 2024 gross profit margin was 25.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.63 percentage points [1] - Q3 2024 net profit margin was 12.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.79 percentage points [1] Industry and Market Analysis - Aluminum electrolytic capacitors accounted for over 80% of the company's revenue in the first half of 2024 [1] - The company's MLPC products are expected to gain more market share in Q4 2024 due to technological innovation and recognition by server and AI companies [1] - The company is actively researching and industrializing key materials for capacitors, extending the aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry chain [1] Future Prospects - The company's film capacitors and supercapacitors are expected to benefit from the continued development of new energy vehicles [1] - Supercapacitors have significant application potential in smart meters, wind power pitch control, smart grid transformation, rail transit, oil-to-electricity projects, and port machinery [1] - The company's grid frequency modulation module project is progressing smoothly, laying a good foundation for future development [1] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 5,070 million, 6,066 million, and 7,079 million yuan, respectively [4] - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 719 million, 893 million, and 1,079 million yuan, respectively [4] - Expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.85, 1.05, and 1.27 yuan, respectively [4]