YTO(600233) 国海证券·2024-11-01 12:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8][11] Core Insights - The company has shown a strong performance with a revenue increase of 21.13% year-on-year, reaching 49.369 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 10.21% to 2.930 billion yuan, indicating stable profitability [3] - The company’s business volume grew by 25.99% compared to the market, with a market share increase to 15.28% [3][4] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.805 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.13% [3] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 943 million yuan, up 18.06% year-on-year [3] - The company’s single-package revenue decreased by 0.12 yuan to 2.50 yuan, while the total cost per package fell by 0.08 yuan to 2.37 yuan [3][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s price decline of 4.90% is less than the industry average decline of 6.45%, showcasing its pricing power [5][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing customer satisfaction and brand reputation, which is expected to support its pricing strategy amidst industry competition [6][7] - The company is expanding its international presence and logistics capabilities, aiming to establish a second growth curve through overseas market penetration [7] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 66.344 billion yuan, 73.125 billion yuan, and 79.615 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively [8][9] - Expected net profits for the same period are 4.211 billion yuan, 4.517 billion yuan, and 5.469 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13%, 7%, and 21% respectively [8][9] - The report anticipates stable growth in earnings per share (EPS), projected at 1.22 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.59 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][9]