AVICOPTER(600038) 民生证券·2024-11-01 13:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue increased by 55% YoY, driven by higher product delivery confirmations [2] - The company's 2024 full-year revenue is expected to reach 30.81 billion yuan, a 32.1% increase YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 720 million yuan, up 61.7% YoY [3] - The company is actively expanding in the low-altitude economy sector, including civil helicopters and H-eVTOL markets, with significant progress in Jiangxi Province's aviation infrastructure [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 730 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45x, 37x, and 30x [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 9.13 billion yuan, up 54.9% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 60 million yuan, down 67.2% YoY [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 4.6%, a decrease of 7.98 percentage points YoY, while the net margin was 0.6%, down 2.51 percentage points YoY [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin was 8.6%, down 0.55 percentage points YoY, and the net margin was 2.0%, up 0.24 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's operating cash flow improved to -11.45 billion yuan, compared to -14.65 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] Operational Highlights - The company's R&D expenses decreased by 68% YoY to 190 million yuan due to reduced self-developed project investments [2] - The company's monetary funds decreased by 65.2% to 3.39 billion yuan, mainly due to higher procurement payments and fewer product deliveries meeting revenue recognition conditions [2] - The company's contract liabilities decreased by 49.4% to 4.45 billion yuan, reflecting the recognition of prepayments as revenue [2] Industry and Market Outlook - The company is a leading player in China's helicopter manufacturing industry, with a comprehensive product portfolio and significant market share [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of China's aviation equipment and low-altitude economy sectors [3] - The company's H-eVTOL development is progressing, with potential applications in the low-altitude economy sector [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 23.33 billion yuan in 2024 to 41.39 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.95% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 734 million yuan in 2024 to 1.13 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.13% [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 11% from 2024 to 2026 [6]