China Life(601628) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 13:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Life Insurance (601628) is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that China Life's net assets have grown rapidly, and the "Seed Plan" is advancing faster than expected. The company's performance for the first nine months of 2024 (9M24) aligns with previous profit forecasts, driven by a significant rebound in total investment income after a period of low stock market fluctuations. The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for 9M24 increased by 173.9% year-on-year, and by 194.1% on a comparable basis [1][7][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 86.2 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.3 billion respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 308.2% for 2024 [1][13] - The expected new business value (NBV) for 2024 is 36.0 billion, with a growth rate of 8.9% [1] Key Investment Points - The report notes that the insurance service revenue for 9M24 increased by 15.7% year-on-year, outperforming peers due to improved contract service margins and cash flow from policy acquisition. The investment yield has turned positive, contributing significantly to net profit [1][10] - The cumulative new business value (NBV) for 9M24 accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1%, and a quarterly growth rate exceeding 50% for Q3 2024. The company achieved a new single premium of 197.5 billion, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [1][10] Financial Performance - The total investment income for Q1 2024 saw a year-on-year increase of 152.4%, with a simple annualized total/net investment yield of 5.38%/3.26% [1][10] - The net assets at the end of the reporting period increased by 19.4% year-on-year to 566.7 billion, driven by profit release and positive contributions from other comprehensive income [1][10] Sales and Marketing Strategy - The total sales force at the end of the period was 694,000, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3%. The company is actively implementing the "Seed Plan" in 24 cities, achieving initial success [1][10]