Jiajiayue(603708)2024-11-02 04:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading supermarket chain in Shandong, leveraging strong supply chain capabilities and fresh produce specialties to solidify its position in the province. It is actively expanding its store coverage through mergers, acquisitions, and franchising in regions outside of its traditional areas, including Hebei and Anhui [1][3] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 14.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 188 million yuan, a decrease of 12.03% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 4.765 billion yuan, down 0.49% year-on-year, and net profit was 18 million yuan, down 33.71% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.127 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 188 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.03%. The adjusted net profit was 157 million yuan, down 22.50% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 4.765 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.49% year-on-year, and net profit was 18 million yuan, down 33.71% year-on-year [1][2] Store Expansion and Efficiency - The company is accelerating the expansion of franchise stores and steadily developing snack stores. In Q3 2024, the company added 13 direct-operated stores and 30 franchise stores, resulting in a total of 1,103 stores. The company is also enhancing existing stores to improve operational efficiency amidst a challenging consumer environment [1][2] Profitability and Costs - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 22.65%, a slight decrease of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio increased by 0.65 percentage points to 22.10%, primarily due to costs associated with store layout optimization and increased logistics expenses. The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 0.38%, down 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] Future Projections - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 17.951 billion yuan, 18.496 billion yuan, and 19.451 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts are adjusted to 167 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 230 million yuan for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 42.3, 39.1, and 30.7 times PE for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2]