SD-GOLD(600547) 华安证券·2024-11-02 09:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Gold is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Shandong Gold's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 67.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.066 billion yuan, up 53.57% year-on-year [2] - The company's gold production increased by 19.58% year-on-year to 35.44 tons, achieving 75.4% of its annual target of 47 tons [2] - The average gold price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for the first three quarters was 537.1 yuan per gram, a 21.34% increase compared to the same period last year, with the price reaching 634 yuan per gram by October 31 [2] - The integration of the Jiaoji Gold Mine has been completed, and a mining license for 6.6 million tons per year has been obtained, with plans for expanded production starting in 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 83.038 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 40.1%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.9% increase [5] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 16.7% in 2024, increasing to 20.3% by 2026 [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.74 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.5 [5][8] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 15.476 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [6] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The company has optimized its expense ratios across sales, management, R&D, and financial costs, leading to significant cost reductions [3] - Non-recurring losses for the first three quarters amounted to 27.7 million yuan, primarily due to fair value changes in financial assets [3] Future Profitability Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.33 billion yuan, 4.83 billion yuan, and 5.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.5, 24.4, and 20.0 [3][5]