HBYH(000422) 华安证券·2024-11-02 09:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hubei Yihua is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that despite a narrowing price spread in Q3, the company's performance remains resilient, and asset structure improvements are steadily progressing [1] - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 4.459 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.31% [1] - Net profit for the same period was 219 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 59.46% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 45.76% [1] - The report notes a mixed performance in product prices, with strong demand for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and a decline in urea and PVC prices due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [1] - The company is expected to benefit from increased DAP production capacity and a favorable export environment, which will support profitability in the phosphate segment [1] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are 18.106 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [3] - The net profit for 2024E is projected to be 1.088 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 140.1% [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 12.7% in 2023A to 15.9% in 2024E [3] - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.47 yuan in 2023A to 1.00 yuan in 2024E [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 22.26 in 2023A to 14.09 in 2024E, indicating improved valuation [3] Cash Flow and Investment Activities - Operating cash flow for 2024E is estimated at 1.626 billion yuan, increasing to 3.861 billion yuan by 2026E [4] - The report indicates that capital expenditures will be significant, with projected investments of 1.492 billion yuan in 2024E [4] - The net increase in cash is expected to turn positive in 2024E, with a forecasted increase of 1.264 billion yuan [4] Asset and Liability Overview - Total assets are projected to grow from 21.434 billion yuan in 2023A to 35.672 billion yuan in 2026E [5] - The company's total liabilities are expected to increase from 12.777 billion yuan in 2023A to 21.871 billion yuan in 2026E [5] - The report highlights a stable equity position, with the equity attributable to shareholders expected to rise from 6.574 billion yuan in 2023A to 9.879 billion yuan in 2026E [5]