Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 开源证券·2024-11-02 12:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was under pressure, with a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan (up 5.9% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 448 million yuan (down 8.9% year-on-year). Q3 revenue was 2.19 billion yuan (up 2.3% year-on-year) and net profit was 390 million yuan (down 5.3% year-on-year). Due to weak demand and intensified competition, the forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 510 million, 610 million, and 700 million yuan respectively [1][2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve stable growth driven by both food and restaurant segments, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [1]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2024, the food segment saw a revenue decline of 0.5%, with mooncake and frozen food revenues growing by 0.1% and declining by 4.8% respectively. The mooncake segment performed relatively well, with total sales of 13.74 million boxes (up 1.5% year-on-year) [2]. - The restaurant segment showed strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue growth of 17.3%, benefiting from steady store expansion. As of October 30, the company operated 50 direct restaurant outlets in key cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [2]. Market Expansion - The food manufacturing business's direct sales and distribution revenues grew by 5.3% and declined by 3.5% respectively in Q3 2024. Revenue from the Guangdong province increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 2.3% [3]. - The company continues to focus on the Guangdong market while actively expanding into markets outside the province, with expectations for steady revenue growth in 2024 [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 39.5% (down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year), primarily due to increased promotional efforts. The net profit margin was 18.3% (down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year). Future improvements in gross margin are anticipated as restaurant operations stabilize and promotional efforts normalize [4]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be relatively stable, with a net profit margin forecasted at 9.9% for 2024, improving to 10.9% and 11.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [5]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 511 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.2% year-on-year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.90 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.06 yuan in 2025 and 1.23 yuan in 2026 [5]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is 16.13 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9.174 billion yuan. The stock has seen a 3-month turnover rate of 32.46% [6].