Mindray(300760) 华安证券·2024-11-03 07:43Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Mindray Medical (300760) [1] Core Views - Domestic growth under pressure, while overseas markets continue high growth [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 294.8 billion, up 8.0% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 106.4 billion, up 8.2% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 89.5 billion, up 1.4% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 9.3% YoY to RMB 30.8 billion [1] - Domestic market growth slowed to 1.9% in the first three quarters, with a 9.7% decline in Q3, while international market growth remained strong at 18.3% for the first three quarters and 18.6% in Q3 [1] - Europe saw a 30% YoY growth in Q3, while developing markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, grew by 32% and 25% respectively in Q3 [1] - Life Information & Support product line declined by 11.7% in the first three quarters, while Medical Imaging and IVD product lines grew by 11.4% and 20.9% respectively [1] - IVD product line now accounts for 39% of total revenue, surpassing the Life Information & Support product line [1] - Strong cash flow with operating cash flow reaching RMB 110.7 billion in the first three quarters, up 42.5% YoY [1] - Dividend payout ratio remains high, with RMB 16.5 per 10 shares distributed, totaling RMB 2 billion, representing over 65% of Q3 net profit [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 379.28 billion, RMB 451.50 billion, and RMB 536.02 billion, with YoY growth of 8.6%, 19.0%, and 18.7% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 130.30 billion, RMB 155.42 billion, and RMB 186.92 billion, with YoY growth of 12.5%, 19.3%, and 20.3% respectively [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 10.75, RMB 12.82, and RMB 15.42, with corresponding PE ratios of 25x, 21x, and 17x [3] Financial Highlights - Operating cash flow for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 151.36 billion, RMB 174.63 billion, and RMB 208.99 billion [7] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 130.30 billion, RMB 155.42 billion, and RMB 186.92 billion [7] - ROE for 2024-2026 is projected to be 28.3%, 25.2%, and 23.3% [5] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 65% for 2024-2026 [5] Business Segments - Life Information & Support product line declined by 11.7% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - Medical Imaging product line grew by 11.4% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - IVD product line grew by 20.9% in the first three quarters of 2024, with chemical发光业务增长超过 20% [1] - Overseas localization of IVD products has been initiated in 8 countries, covering Europe, Latin America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Middle East & Africa, and CIS regions [1]