TC Medical(600763) 国泰君安·2024-11-03 20:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.16 RMB, up from the previous target of 48.80 RMB [2][3] Core Views - The company faces short-term pressure due to external consumption environment, with steady growth in outpatient visits but pressure on average spending per customer [3] - The dental implant business is growing through volume expansion despite price reductions, while the consumer dental segment remains under pressure [3] - The "Dandelion" branch hospitals are growing rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, and new hospital expansions are progressing steadily [3][8] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.233 billion RMB (+2.21% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 498 million RMB (-2.63% YoY) [8] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 41.82% (-0.77 pct YoY), and net profit margin was 26.95% (-1.07 pct YoY) [8] - The company's total market capitalization is 22.525 billion RMB, with a current price of 50.36 RMB [5] Operational Highlights - Outpatient visits in Q1-Q3 2024 reached 2.65 million (+6.5% YoY), with 2.29 million visits in the home province (+4.5% YoY) and 360,000 visits outside the province (+21.7% YoY) [8] - Dental implant revenue grew to 384 million RMB (+11.7% YoY), with the number of implants increasing by 30% YoY [8] - The "Dandelion" hospitals contributed 523 million RMB in revenue (+19% YoY), accounting for 23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 21% and a net profit margin of 12.9% [8] Expansion Plans - The company plans to open 8 new "Dandelion" hospitals in 2024, with 3 already delivered and 5 expected by year-end [8] - The Zijin Port hospital is expected to start trial operations by the end of 2024, and the new West City hospital is expected to complete relocation by 2025 [8] - The Yiwu General Hospital is expected to open between late 2024 and early 2025, with plans to open 5-8 new "Dandelion" hospitals in 2025 [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at 2.918 billion RMB (+2.5% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 521 million RMB (+4.0% YoY) [9] - EPS for 2024E is projected at 1.16 RMB, with ROE expected to be 12.1% [9] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 43.26x, and the P/B ratio is 5.24x [9]