Endovastec(688016) 国泰君安·2024-11-03 20:38Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 119.37 RMB [2][3][4] Core Views - The company's aortic business is under pressure due to price adjustments, but its medium-to-long-term competitiveness remains intact [2] - Peripheral products are expected to accelerate market penetration through centralized procurement, contributing to incremental growth [2] - The impact of price adjustments is expected to be fully absorbed by Q3 2025, and the company's competitiveness in the aortic field is likely to remain strong [3] - The company's overseas business is expected to accelerate following the acquisition of OMD [3] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 970 million RMB, a YoY increase of 9.1%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 553 million RMB, up 42.5% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 182 million RMB, a YoY decrease of 31.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million RMB, up 37.6% YoY [3] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.86/4.27/6.19 RMB, down from previous estimates of 5.19/5.98/7.54 RMB [3] Product and Market Dynamics - Aortic stent prices were adjusted in August and September 2024, with thoracic stent prices reduced by approximately 40% and abdominal stent prices by 20%-35% [3] - The company's peripheral products, including venous stents and vena cava filters, have been approved and are expected to benefit from centralized procurement [3] - New products such as Cratos, AegisⅡ, and Hector are in development and expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the aortic field [3] Valuation and Market Data - The company's current price is 98.06 RMB, with a 52-week price range of 79.81-206.98 RMB [4][5] - Total market capitalization is 12,087 million RMB, with 123 million shares outstanding [5] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is 25.41, with a target P/E of 28X for 2025 [3][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 1,161 million RMB, with a YoY decrease of 2.2%, while 2025E and 2026E revenues are expected to grow by 22.2% and 38.8%, respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is forecasted at 476 million RMB, with 2025E and 2026E profits expected to grow by 10.7% and 44.9%, respectively [9] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 11.4%, increasing to 15.8% by 2026E [9] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is compared to peers such as Xishan Technology, United Imaging Healthcare, and SonoScape, with an average P/E ratio of 38 for 2023A, 37 for 2024E, and 28 for 2025E [11]