XIAOMI(01810) 国盛证券·2024-11-03 22:38Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810 HK) with a target price of 31 HKD [3][4] Core Views - Xiaomi Group released the Xiaomi 15 series smartphones, Xiaomi SU7 Ultra mass production version, and 16 other hardware and software products at its October 29th launch event [1] - Global smartphone shipments grew 4 0% YoY in Q3 2024 to 316 1 million units Xiaomi maintained its position as a top 3 global player with 42 8 million shipments and 13 5% market share [2] - Xiaomi's smartphone gross margin is expected to bottom out in Q3 2024 and improve thereafter as screen and memory cost increases stabilize [2] - The AIoT business is benefiting from China's home appliance trade-in subsidy program and overseas IoT expansion driving revenue growth [2] - Xiaomi SU7 deliveries exceeded 20 000 units in October 2024 and full-year deliveries are expected to reach 120 000 units [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow 28%/25%/16% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 347 8/434 5/504 3 billion RMB [3] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 31 7/35 4/40 5 billion RMB in 2024/2025/2026 representing 18%/12%/14% YoY growth [3] - The automotive business is expected to turn profitable in 2026 with 3 4 billion RMB in net profit after losses of 7 2/2 0 billion RMB in 2024/2025 [3] Business Segment Analysis - Smartphone revenue is forecast to grow 20%/8%/7% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 189 0/203 2/218 3 billion RMB with gross margin improving from 12 7% to 13 9% [13] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue is projected to increase 19%/11%/11% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 95 5/106 1/117 7 billion RMB with gross margin rising from 20 0% to 21 4% [13] - Internet services revenue is expected to grow 10%/7%/7% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 33 1/35 4/38 0 billion RMB maintaining a 75% gross margin [13] - Automotive revenue is forecast to surge from 27 2 billion RMB in 2024 to 127 8 billion RMB in 2026 with gross margin improving from 16 0% to 19 7% [13]