EASTERN SHENGHONG(000301) 光大证券·2024-11-04 08:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Oriental Rainbow (000301 SZ) [2] Core Views - Oriental Rainbow's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to declining oil prices, with significant inventory losses and a drop in aromatics margins [4] - The company's large-scale refining and chemical integration project has been fully operational, enhancing its core competitiveness [5] - The POSM and polyol projects were successfully put into operation, further extending the vertical integration of the refining and chemical industry chain [6] - Despite short-term volatility in oil prices, the report remains optimistic about the company's long-term profitability in refining and new materials [8] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Oriental Rainbow reported revenue of 35 5 billion yuan, down 6% YoY and 2% QoQ, with a net loss of 1 7 billion yuan, a significant decline from the previous quarter [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 108 3 billion yuan, up 5% YoY, but recorded a net loss of 1 4 billion yuan, down 156% YoY [3] - The report revised down the company's profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of -9 63 billion yuan, 26 31 billion yuan, and 41 32 billion yuan, respectively [8] Operational Highlights - The refining and chemical integration project has a designed crude oil processing capacity of 16 million tons/year, with 2 8 million tons/year of aromatics and 1 1 million tons/year of ethylene cracking capacity [5] - The company's polyester fiber segment has a production capacity of 3 55 million tons/year, with a differentiation rate exceeding 90% [5] - The POSM and polyol projects, with a total investment of 5 6 billion yuan, can produce 200,000 tons/year of propylene oxide, 450,000 tons/year of styrene, 115,000 tons/year of polyether polyols, and 25,000 tons/year of polymer polyols [6] Market Data - Oriental Rainbow's current stock price is 7 94 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 52 493 billion yuan [2] - The stock's relative performance over the past year has been -33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [2] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be -15, 20, and 13 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]