理想汽车-W：三季度盈利能力环比大幅增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto [1][2] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to USD 30.8, representing a potential upside of 23% [1] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is increased to HKD 120.0, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's vehicle delivery momentum is sustained, driven by the L6 model, with projected sales of 507,000 units in 2024 and 700,000 units in 2025, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [1][2] - The company's profitability significantly improved in Q3, with expectations for continued profit growth through 2025, positioning it as a leader in profitability among new energy vehicle companies [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capture additional market share in pure electric models by 2025 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 42.874 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year and a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 9.225 billion, up 21% year-over-year and 49% quarter-over-quarter [9] - Operating profit increased by 47% year-over-year and 633% quarter-over-quarter, reaching RMB 3.433 billion [9] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.814 billion, approximately flat year-over-year but up 155% from the previous quarter [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, slightly down from 22.0% year-over-year but improved from 19.5% quarter-over-quarter [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 146.396 billion, with a growth rate of 18% [11] - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 30.431 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% [11] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 12.534 billion, with a net margin of 6.3% [11] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5x for automotive sales and 17.0x for other revenues, leading to a target price of USD 30.8 for Li Auto [3][13] - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.4x for 2025 [3][13]