GUANGHUI ENERGY(600256) 山西证券·2024-11-04 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [1][5] Core Views - The coal production has officially been released, and there are expectations for improvement in trade gas in Q4 [1][2] - The company reported a significant increase in coal production and sales in Q3, driven by the commissioning of the Malang mine and improved mining conditions at Baishihu [2][3] - The LNG trade volume decreased due to low trade price differentials, but there is an expectation for recovery in Q4 as price differentials improve [2][3] - The company has seen a reduction in coal chemical product output, primarily due to annual maintenance of coal chemical facilities [3] - Future growth is anticipated with the approval of increased production capacity at Baishihu and Malang mines, which is expected to enhance profitability in the coal sector [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 26.391 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.003 billion yuan, down 58.72% year-on-year [1][4] - The company's coal production reached 21.653 million tons, an increase of 32.8% year-on-year, with Q3 production alone at 11.886 million tons, up 168.68% year-on-year [2][4] - The net asset return rate was 6.36%, a decrease of 8.02 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.42, 0.67, and 0.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 18.1, 11.4, and 8.6 times [5][7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to decline by 29.5% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 21.7% in 2025 and 20.6% in 2026 [4][7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 14.2% in 2024, improving to 16.3% in 2025 and 16.8% in 2026 [4][7] - The net profit margin is projected to be 6.4% in 2024, increasing to 8.3% in 2025 and 9.2% in 2026 [4][7] - The company’s total assets as of September 30, 2024, were 58.563 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.34% year-on-year [1][4]