Keeson(603610) 西南证券·2024-11-04 09:05Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Qisheng Technology (603610) [1] Core Views - Qisheng Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 2.22 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 150 million, down 19% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 760 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 1.8% to RMB 66.04 million [1] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 33.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching RMB 220 million, a year-on-year increase of 63.41% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with a new factory in Vietnam expected to start production in 2025 [3] - Qisheng Technology has a high customer concentration, with its largest customer, Tempur Sealy International (TSI), accounting for 46.3% of sales in H1 2024 [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 2.98 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.07% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be RMB 194.99 million, down 5.19% year-on-year [5] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 0.54, with a PE ratio of 17x [5] - The company's ROE for 2024E is projected to be 5.62%, slightly lower than the 6.22% in 2023A [5] Business Segments - Smart electric beds are the core product, with revenue expected to reach RMB 2.37 billion in 2024E, accounting for 79.7% of total revenue [8] - The gross margin for smart electric beds is projected to be 33.5% in 2024E, slightly lower than the 35.7% in 2023A [8] - Mattress revenue is expected to be RMB 222.8 million in 2024E, with a gross margin of 40% [8] - Accessories and other products are expected to generate RMB 380 million in revenue in 2024E, with a gross margin of 35% [8] Overseas Expansion - The company is building a new factory in Vietnam with a total investment of USD 20 million, covering an area of 91,000 square meters [3] - The Vietnam factory is expected to produce 80,000 sets of smart beds per month after its completion in 2025 [3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 93.9% of total revenue in H1 2024, with the US, Mexico, Vietnam, Portugal, and Lithuania being key markets [3] Customer Concentration - Tempur Sealy International (TSI) is the largest customer, accounting for 46.3% of sales in H1 2024 [4] - The company has extended its manufacturing and supply agreement with TSI until March 31, 2027 [4] - Another major customer, Serta Simmons Bedding (SSB), has also renewed a five-year manufacturing and supply agreement [4]