海尔智家：盈利稳步改善，以旧换新成效有望显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Views - Revenue growth remains stable, with profits continuing to improve. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 202.97 billion, up 2.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.15 billion, up 15.3% [1][2]. - The domestic retail market is showing positive improvements, with expectations for the effects of the "trade-in for new" policy to become evident. The retail market for home appliances in China saw a 7.5% growth in Q3, following a decline in July [1][2]. - The company is actively seizing opportunities from the "trade-in for new" initiative, leveraging its strengths in high-end branding and multi-channel layout, which is expected to lead to strong growth in domestic sales [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 67.35 billion, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.73 billion, up 13.2% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 31.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points, with the net profit margin reaching 7.0%, up 0.8 percentage points [2][3]. Sales and Market Strategy - Despite weak demand in the US and Europe, the company has maintained steady growth in exports, particularly in the South Asian market, which saw over 30% growth year-on-year in Q3 [2]. - The company is enhancing its logistics integration through control of the logistics service provider, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and contribute positively to revenue [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been raised, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 projected at 19.2 billion, 21.75 billion, and 24.33 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 12% [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.05, 2.32, and 2.59 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.7 in 2023 to 14.4 in 2024, and further to 12.7 in 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 16% in 2023 to 17% in 2024, and reach 18% by 2026 [4].