Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 15.4, indicating a potential upside of 52.4% from the current price of HKD 10.12 [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a slight increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter, with a 21.5% increase in Q2 net profit, aligning with market expectations. However, the year-on-year net profit has decreased by 22.5% [1]. - The coal business remains stable, with a quarterly production increase leading to a decrease in costs. The average selling price of coal is expected to rise slightly due to increased demand as the weather cools [1]. - The coal chemical segment has turned profitable, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, achieving revenue of RMB 187 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 106.6 billion, with a net profit of RMB 38.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27% [1]. - The coal segment's quarterly revenue was RMB 228 billion, with a gross profit margin of 50.2%, an increase of 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal chemical business reported a gross profit of RMB 15 billion in Q3, indicating a stable profitability outlook for the year [1]. Production and Sales Outlook - The company anticipates orderly production releases across various business segments, with new coal mines expected to commence operations by the end of the year and in 2026 [1]. - The coal production is projected to maintain growth, supported by new mining projects and increased operational efficiency [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.53, RMB 1.76, and RMB 1.93 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 15.3 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [2].
兖矿能源：Q3净利润环比微增，产能释放成本下降