CAMCE(002051) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 16:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [8][6]. Core Views - The Q3 performance of the company was below expectations, but it is anticipated that the company will achieve steady growth in the future due to the strong capabilities of its controlling shareholder, China National Machinery Industry Corporation, and its competitive advantages in high-end equipment, oil and gas, and medical sectors [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.37% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 7.32% to 320 million yuan [6]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -1.69 billion yuan, compared to -750 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [6]. - The company’s expense ratio increased to 12.19%, and the net profit margin decreased to 3.76% [6]. - The weighted ROE was 2.86%, down by 0.26 percentage points [6]. Order and Contract Insights - International engineering orders increased by 10.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but there was a significant decline of 24.4% in Q3 alone [6]. - New contracts signed in the international engineering contracting business totaled 1.57 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, while Q3 saw a decline of 24.4% [6]. - Domestic engineering contracting new contracts surged by 229.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 alone seeing a remarkable increase of 3233% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 9.83 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 31.7 times for 2024 [6]. - The current price is 8.01 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9.912 billion yuan [9]. - The company has a PB ratio of 0.87, which is at the 19th percentile over the past 10 years [6]. Shareholder Returns - According to the shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, the company will distribute no less than 40% of the annual distributable profits in cash [6]. - The current dividend yield is 1.56% [6].