SONAVOX(688533) 西南证券·2024-11-05 01:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profitability have shown significant growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 7.56 billion yuan, up 20.1% YoY and 18% QoQ, and net profit reaching 0.78 billion yuan, up 117% YoY and 47.1% QoQ [1] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 28.8%, up 4 percentage points YoY and 3.9 percentage points QoQ, while the net margin was 10.1%, up 4.5 percentage points YoY and 2 percentage points QoQ [1] - The company's strong performance is attributed to the growth in major customer sales, improved product competitiveness, and optimized customer and product structure [1] Business Performance - The company's automotive speaker business achieved revenue of 9.42 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 20.3% YoY, driven by increasing demand for higher-quality audio systems in vehicles [2] - The automotive amplifier business saw revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, up 58.2% YoY, while the AVAS (Acoustic Vehicle Alerting System) business generated 0.59 billion yuan, up 62.4% YoY [2] - The combined revenue from amplifiers and AVAS accounted for 21.5% of total revenue, up 4.2 percentage points YoY, indicating a diversification in product offerings [2] Customer and Capacity Expansion - The company has secured new projects from several well-known automotive manufacturers, with mass production expected within the next 1-2 years [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with ongoing automation upgrades at its Czech and Mexico factories, and the new Hefei factory is nearing completion, with trial production expected within the year [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 1.62/1.91/2.23 yuan for 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 32% for net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - Revenue is projected to grow to 29.09/34.38/39.54 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 18.19% [4] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 26.8% from 2024 to 2026, while the net margin is forecasted to increase to 9.01% by 2026 [8] Key Assumptions - The company's speaker shipments are expected to grow to 9000/9500/10000 million units in 2024-2026, with a 10% annual increase in unit price and a gross margin of 28% [7] - Automotive amplifier shipments are projected to reach 62/78/91 million units in 2024-2026, with a gross margin of 24% [7] - AVAS shipments are expected to grow to 284/381/457 million units in 2024-2026, with a gross margin of 21% [7]