KINGKEY SMART AGRI(000048)2024-11-05 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company's main business in pig farming has improved profitability, and the pig farming industry is experiencing an upward trend [2][3] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 602 million yuan, down 52.16% year-on-year [2][3] - The pig farming business accounted for approximately 62% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, generating about 4.16 billion yuan in net profit [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to approximately 62% by the end of the third quarter of 2024, indicating improved solvency and optimized asset structure [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.895 billion yuan and a net profit of 366 million yuan [2][3] - The company sold 228,100 pigs in September 2024, with an average selling price of 19.11 yuan/kg [3] - The total sales of pigs from January to September 2024 reached 1.6344 million heads [3] - The latest complete cost in September 2024 was 14.59 yuan/kg, with an average production cost of 326 yuan per weaned pig [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to generate revenues of 8.364 billion yuan, 8.090 billion yuan, and 9.258 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 847 million yuan, 943 million yuan, and 787 million yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 10.89, 9.79, and 11.72 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The company maintains a good development trajectory in its pig farming business, with improving profitability, thus the "Buy" rating is upheld [3][5]