源杰科技：营收高速增长，CW光源有望放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing the potential for improved gross margins and long-term growth driven by the initial volume release of CW light source products [3][5] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by the recovery in demand for traditional 2.5G and 10G DFB orders, as well as the recovery in data center market demand, particularly for high-speed module CW light source products [2] - Short-term profitability is under pressure due to the high proportion of low-margin 2.5G products and increased R&D investment in high-value-added products such as EML and silicon photonics [2] - The data center market is expected to see significant growth, with the company's CW light source products entering the testing phase and expected to drive gross margin recovery and improved profitability [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - The company reported revenue of RMB 178 million in Q3 2024, a 91.20% YoY increase, but a net loss of RMB 1 million, turning from profit to loss [2] - Revenue from the telecom market reached RMB 110 million in the first half of 2024, a 94.61% YoY increase, driven by the development of next-generation 25G/50G PON fiber network ONU and OLT optical chip products [2] - Revenue from the data center market reached RMB 9 million in the first half of 2024, a 111.27% YoY increase, driven by the recovery in traditional data center market demand and the batch delivery of CW light source products [2] - The company's R&D investment in the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 36 million, a 59.18% YoY increase, accounting for 20.22% of revenue [2] - The report forecasts revenue of RMB 273.37 million, RMB 434.19 million, and RMB 596.02 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 89.31%, 58.83%, and 37.27% [3][4] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.31, RMB 1.27, and RMB 2.35 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 462.65x, 114.62x, and 61.68x [3][4] Product Development - The company's CW light source 70mW product has passed testing, while the 100G PAM4 EML optical chip is undergoing client testing, and the 200G PAM4 EML has completed initial performance R&D and in-house testing [2] - The company is actively developing next-generation 25G/50G PON fiber network ONU and OLT optical chip products, with Omdia predicting a 200% CAGR in 50G PON port shipments from 2024 to 2028 [2]