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百胜中国:业绩超预期,提升三年股东回报50%
09987YUM CHINA(09987) 国金证券·2024-11-05 02:42

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 total revenue of 3.07billion,a53.07 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with core operating profit rising by 18% to 369 million [2]. - The company plans to increase the proportion of franchise stores, aiming for 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decline has narrowed, with a 6% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales also showed improvement, with a 2% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns to 4.5billionfrom2024to2026,a504.5 billion from 2024 to 2026, a 50% increase from previous plans [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was 3.07 billion, with a 5% increase year-over-year, and core operating profit reached 369million,an18369 million, an 18% increase [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decreased by 2%, while system sales increased by 6% at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales decreased by 6%, with system sales increasing by 2% at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company reported a net increase of 438 stores in Q3, with 145 of those being franchise stores, representing 33% of the total [2]. - The company has a strong cash flow with 3.15 billion in net cash as of the end of Q3 [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 920million,920 million, 1.01 billion, and $1.09 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 10.8%, 10.4%, and 7.5% [2]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 18.9, 17.5, and 16.2 respectively [2].