China XD(601179) 国海证券·2024-11-05 05:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China XD Electric (601179) [2] Core Views - China XD Electric's profitability has significantly improved year-over-year, driven by the delivery of high-value-added products, particularly in the UHV and power transmission sectors [3] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 4.9 billion yuan, up 4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 200% YoY to 330 million yuan [3] - Gross profit margin in Q3 2024 rose to 23.7%, up 6.5 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin increased to 8.6%, up 5.3 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's new orders have been growing steadily in 2024, with a 32% YoY increase in power transmission bidding, outperforming the 12% growth in State Grid's total bidding amount [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, China XD Electric achieved revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, up 6% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million yuan, up 45% YoY [3] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.5%, up 3.7 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin was 6.5%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders surged 384% YoY to 310 million yuan [3] Market Position and Growth Prospects - China XD Electric is a leading domestic player in UHV-related power equipment, with significant market share in key products such as transformers and gas-insulated switchgear [3] - The company won 5.9 billion yuan in UHV and power transmission transformer bids in 2023, a 447% YoY increase, and 4.4 billion yuan in gas-insulated switchgear bids, up 94% YoY [3] - In 2024, the company secured 1.1 billion yuan in UHV flexible DC converter valve bids, capturing a 25% market share, indicating strong growth potential in the flexible DC sector [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to 22.3 billion yuan in 2024, 24.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 27.8 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 6%, 12%, and 12% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.29 billion yuan in 2024, 1.82 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.31 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 45%, 41%, and 27% respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.3 yuan in 2024, 0.4 yuan in 2025, and 0.5 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35X, 24X, and 19X [5] Valuation Metrics - As of November 4, 2024, the company's stock price was 8.68 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 44.49 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 44.49 billion yuan [3] - The 52-week price range was 4.38-9.54 yuan, with a daily average trading volume of 1.11 billion yuan and a one-month turnover rate of 2.37% [3][4]