KINGKEY SMART AGRI(000048)2024-11-05 23:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company focuses on developing pig farming, with Q3 2024 showing significant profitability in the breeding business, achieving a revenue of 1.895 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.9% [1] - The company has shifted its strategic focus to pig farming, expecting to maintain a profitable cycle in Q4 2024, with further expansion of profit margins in the breeding business [1] - The real estate business is currently in a stock sales phase, with Q3 sales revenue of approximately 440 million yuan and a net profit of about 5.28 million yuan [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 366 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 370 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 4.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.7%, and a net profit of 602 million yuan, down 52.2% year-on-year [1] - The company expects to return to normal breeding costs in Q4 2024, following the impact of natural disasters in September [1] Production and Sales - The company reported a pig output of 588,500 heads in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with sales revenue from pig farming reaching 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The average price of commodity pigs in July, August, and September was 19.77, 20.89, and 19.11 yuan per kilogram, respectively, indicating stable pricing [1] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 6.372 billion, 7.191 billion, and 8.123 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates of 1.55, 1.70, and 1.66 yuan [3] - The company is expected to continue reducing its reliance on real estate revenue, focusing on pig farming, which is anticipated to enhance production performance and further decrease the debt-to-asset ratio [3]