寒武纪：国产算力核心，时代的主角

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Cambricon-U (688256 SH) with a "Buy" rating [1] - The target price-to-sales (PS) ratio for 2025 is set at 50x, implying a target market capitalization of 2488 billion yuan [1] Core Views - Cambricon is positioned as a key player in China's domestic AI chip industry, benefiting from the ongoing AI wave and domestic substitution trends [1] - The company is compared to East Money during 2013-2015, with expectations of rapid revenue growth and significant market potential [1] - Cambricon's products cover cloud, edge, and terminal AI chips, with advanced 7nm process technology and a unified software ecosystem [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1 707 billion yuan in 2024 to 6 448 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 140 61% from 2024 to 2025 [1][4] - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 208 million yuan, and further increase to 751 million yuan in 2026 [1][4] - EPS is forecasted to improve from -1 23 yuan in 2024 to 1 80 yuan in 2026 [1][4] Industry Trends - The global AI chip market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the scaling law and increasing demand for training and inference capabilities [1][24] - China's domestic AI chip industry is accelerating due to US export restrictions, with local governments setting ambitious targets for domestic chip adoption [1][30] - Major Chinese telecom operators are placing large orders for domestic AI servers, indicating strong demand for local solutions [34] Company Performance - Cambricon's Q3 2024 revenue reached a record high of 121 million yuan, up 285% YoY [40] - Inventory and cash paid for goods/services reached historical highs in Q3 2024, indicating strong future revenue potential [40] - The company's R&D investment remains high, with a 157 53% R&D expense ratio in 2023 [16] Competitive Landscape - Cambricon is one of the few Chinese companies with experience in designing complex chips using advanced 7nm process technology [1] - The company's MLU370 chip, based on chiplet technology, offers 2x the computing power of its previous generation [11] - In the global GPU market, NVIDIA dominates with over 90% market share in data center GPUs, leaving significant room for domestic alternatives [35]