报喜鸟：第三季度收入下滑12%，费用率提升净利润承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][10]. Core Views - The company experienced a 12% decline in revenue in the third quarter, with net profit under pressure due to increased sales expenses and a challenging market environment [1][3]. - The gross margin remained stable at 62.9%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - The company is focusing on brand promotion and expanding its direct sales market, leading to a 5.1% increase in sales expenses to 4.5 billion yuan, resulting in a sales expense ratio increase of 6.8 percentage points to 42.3% [1][3]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected figures of 5.6 billion, 6.3 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -19.0%, +12.0%, and +9.2% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 1.06 billion yuan, with a further decline compared to Q2 [1]. - The net profit for Q3 fell by 51.7% year-on-year to 70 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.7%, down 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s inventory increased by 8.7% year-on-year and 21.4% quarter-on-quarter to 1.3 billion yuan, influenced by sales pressure and preparations for seasonal promotions [2]. Brand Performance - Revenue for the main brands showed varied performance, with the flagship brand experiencing a decline of 3.7% in the first half of the year, while the Haggis brand showed a slight increase of 0.2% [2]. - The company anticipates continued pressure on revenue across all brands in Q3, with expectations for improvement in Q4 [2]. Profitability and Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.1 billion, 5.5 billion, and 5.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -3.0%, +8.0%, and +7.7% [10]. - The sales expense ratio is expected to rise to 41.7%, 41.4%, and 41.2% for the years 2024-2026 due to high marketing expenditures [10]. - The net profit margin is projected to decrease to 11.1%, 11.5%, and 11.7% for the same period, primarily due to increased sales expenses [10].