Jiangshan Oupai(603208) 西南证券·2024-11-06 10:26Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for Jiangshan Oupai (603208) but suggests continuous attention due to the company's manufacturing advantages and ongoing revenue structure optimization [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 820 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 58.6 million yuan, down 60.8% year-on-year [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 22.8%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, with the third quarter gross margin at 23.8%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in expense ratios has put pressure on profitability [2][3]. - The number of distributors has continued to grow significantly, with 57,895 franchise distributors as of the end of September 2024, an increase of 21,328 from the beginning of the year. The company’s sales model shows a decline in revenue from the distributor channel but an increase in the agent channel [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 820 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 58.6 million yuan, down 60.8% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 22.8%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the third quarter gross margin was 23.8%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales Channels - The revenue from the distributor channel for the first three quarters was 520 million yuan, down 29.2% year-on-year, while the bulk channel achieved 1.55 billion yuan, down 15.6%. The agent channel saw a revenue increase of 4.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s product revenue for the first three quarters included 1.27 billion yuan from laminated doors (down 21.4%), 370 million yuan from solid wood composite doors (down 31.9%), and 150 million yuan from cabinets (down 14%) [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 1.31 yuan, 1.84 yuan, and 2.23 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15x, 11x, and 9x. The report suggests continuous attention to the company due to its strong manufacturing advantages and ongoing revenue structure optimization [3][4].