M&G(603899) 西南证券·2024-11-06 10:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.40 CNY over the next six months [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.11 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.6% to 1.02 billion CNY [1]. - The company's online business is growing rapidly, while traditional business faces pressure due to external consumption weakness. The retail segment, particularly the "Jiwu Zawushang" stores, showed a revenue increase of 15.43% [1]. - The company is focusing on key product categories to enhance consumer satisfaction and is leveraging digitalization to improve market responsiveness [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.06 billion CNY, a 2.8% increase year-on-year, but the net profit fell by 20.6% to 390 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 19.8%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the total expense ratio increased to 12.4% [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.42 billion CNY, reflecting a 5.5% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The revenue from the retail segment reached 1.12 billion CNY, with a growth of 13.1%, while the "Chenguang Technology" segment saw a 34.2% increase in revenue to 880 million CNY [1]. - The company is expanding its retail store network, with a total of 740 stores by the end of Q3, including 702 "Jiwu Zawushang" stores [1]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its direct sales business, which is expected to grow rapidly due to improved management efficiency and market expansion [5][6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.63 CNY, 1.92 CNY, and 2.27 CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [1][5]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth driven by the expansion of retail stores and the direct sales business [1][6].