BTBP(600161) 太平洋·2024-11-06 10:28Investment Rating - Buy/Maintain rating for Tiantan Biological (600161) [2] Core Views - Short-term revenue pressure but long-term growth potential expected [2] - Plasma station expansion and acquisition of Zhongyuan Ruide to boost plasma resources [5] - Successful listing of Chengdu Rongsheng's 4th generation 10% IVIG product, expected to accelerate volume growth [6] - Improved profitability with gross margin increasing to 55.33% in the first three quarters of 2024 [7] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 4.073 billion yuan, up 1.28% YoY [4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit: 1.052 billion yuan, up 18.52% YoY [4] - 2024 Q3 revenue: 1.232 billion yuan, down 7.44% YoY [4] - 2024 Q3 net profit: 326 million yuan, up 1.57% YoY [4] Plasma Station Expansion - Operating plasma stations: 80 as of June 30, 2024 [5] - Total plasma stations: 102 [5] - Acquisition of Zhongyuan Ruide adds 5 operating plasma stations [5] - New plasma stations account for about 30% of total operating stations [5] - Over 20 plasma stations not yet in operation [5] Product Development - Chengdu Rongsheng's 10% IVIG product approved in September 2023 [6] - Product listed in multiple provinces including Heilongjiang, Guangxi, and Chongqing [6] Profitability and Costs - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross margin: 55.33%, up 5.72 percentage points YoY [7] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit margin: 35.04%, up 5.01 percentage points YoY [7] - 2024 Q3 gross margin: 54.54%, up 2.76 percentage points YoY [7] - 2024 Q3 net profit margin: 35.87%, up 3.31 percentage points YoY [7] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 5.710 billion yuan, 6.956 billion yuan, 8.194 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 1.372 billion yuan, 1.659 billion yuan, 1.995 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0.69 yuan, 0.84 yuan, 1.01 yuan [7] - 2024 PE ratio: 32x [7] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 32.02x, 26.47x, 22.01x [10] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 4.02x, 3.59x, 3.17x [11] - 2024-2026 PS ratios: 7.69x, 6.31x, 5.36x [11]