北方国际：24Q3收入阶段承压、盈利能力提升明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 3.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million yuan, an increase of 9.7% year-over-year [5]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 3.71 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-over-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.9% to 220 million yuan [5]. - The company continues to focus on projects along the "Belt and Road" initiative, benefiting from the ongoing development of overseas projects [5]. - Integrated project operations remain stable, supporting the company's long-term outlook, with ongoing projects in Bangladesh, Congo, and Mongolia expected to contribute additional revenue [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 11.7%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year, with Q3 gross margin at 16.2%, up 4.1 percentage points year-over-year [5]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year, while Q3 net profit margin was 5.9%, up 1.4 percentage points year-over-year [5]. - The company expects revenues of 23.8 billion yuan, 26.3 billion yuan, and 29.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate of 11% [5]. Key Projects and Future Outlook - The ongoing construction of the Bangladesh power station is 96% complete, and the company anticipates steady growth in engineering revenue despite some pressure from specific projects [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the seasonal increase in demand for coal and electricity in Q4, which may alleviate some revenue pressure [5].