杭氧股份：气体价格持续回暖，工业气体龙头有望业绩底部反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a performance turnaround due to the recovery in gas prices, with a projected revenue increase of 5.85% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. - The company holds a significant market share in the industrial gas sector, exceeding 50% in air separation equipment and nearly 50% in gas supply, indicating a strong competitive position [3]. - The integration of two major players in the industry, Yingde and Hangyang, is anticipated to enhance market dynamics and scale advantages within three years [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.353 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.85%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.68% to 675 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.625 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% increase year-on-year and a 5.94% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 238 million yuan, down 26.99% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.85%, a decline of 4.54 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.57%, down 3.21 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Industry Position and Growth Potential - The industrial gas market in China is valued at approximately 200 billion yuan, with domestic manufacturers gaining a competitive edge as foreign companies gradually exit the market [3]. - The report highlights the long-term growth logic of the company, driven by domestic substitution, product structure upgrades, and an optimized industry landscape [4]. - The company's earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards, with projected net profits of 997.61 million yuan, 1.340 billion yuan, and 1.558 billion yuan respectively [4][7].