氧化铝深度：供给扰动短期难解，价格高位有望延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on alumina [1]. Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply is primarily sourced from China, with a significant reliance on imported bauxite, leading to supply constraints. In 2023, global alumina production reached 140 million tons, with China contributing 82 million tons, accounting for 58.57% of the total [2][14]. - The domestic alumina market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a notable shortfall in bauxite supply, which is critical for alumina production. The supply-demand balance for imported bauxite reached a deficit of 2.5884 million tons in September 2024 [2][30]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in alumina prices due to supply tightness, with prices expected to remain elevated in the coming months [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - Alumina is a crucial intermediate product in the aluminum industry, with its production heavily dependent on bauxite. The production process primarily utilizes the Bayer process, with over 95% of alumina produced this way [10]. - The alumina market is currently facing a supply shortage, with a significant gap in supply observed in several months of 2024, particularly a shortfall of 67,000 tons in September [12]. Section 2: Supply Constraints - The alumina supply is predominantly from China, which has seen a decline in bauxite production from key regions like Henan and Shanxi due to environmental and safety regulations [19][35]. - The reliance on imported bauxite, especially from Guinea, poses risks to alumina production capacity. The report highlights that Guinea's bauxite export volumes have decreased significantly due to seasonal factors, impacting China's imports [30][42]. Section 3: Alumina Demand - The demand for alumina is expected to rise, driven by the growth in electrolytic aluminum production, which has shown consistent month-on-month increases since April 2022 [3][44]. - The report notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption is projected to grow at a rate of approximately 4.7% in 2024, supported by favorable government policies [3][4]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market's pessimistic outlook for 2025 may lead to a correction in stock valuations for alumina-related companies. It recommends focusing on companies like Nanshan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Tianshan Aluminum, which are expected to benefit from sustained high alumina prices [4][19].