Times Electric(688187) 上海证券·2024-11-07 05:46Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-3 2024 reached 16.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.33%, with Q3 revenue at 5.973 billion yuan, up 8.10% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-3 2024 was 2.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.82%, with Q3 net profit at 994 million yuan, up 10.61% YoY [3] - The railway equipment business achieved revenue of 9.434 billion yuan in Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.17%, driven by the green and low-carbon transformation of railway locomotives [3] - The emerging equipment business, including power semiconductor devices, achieved revenue of 6.755 billion yuan in Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.05%, with power semiconductor revenue at 2.712 billion yuan, up 26.85% YoY [3] - The company delivered over 440,000 sets of electric drive systems in Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.41%, and its market share in the passenger car power module segment reached 13.4% in H1 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 25.074 billion yuan in 2024E to 34.793 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 16.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 3.796 billion yuan in 2024E to 5.075 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 13.3% [4] - EPS is projected to rise from 2.69 yuan in 2024E to 3.60 yuan in 2026E [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 19x in 2024E to 14x in 2026E [3] Business Highlights - The company has a comprehensive product platform covering 1000kw, 1500kw, and 2000kw power levels, which supports the green transformation of railway locomotives [3] - The Yixing factory is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 360,000 8-inch IGBT wafers by 2025, enhancing the company's semiconductor capabilities [3] - The company has been actively investing in R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 1.589 billion yuan in Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.09% [3] - The company's inverter business secured 10.6GW of orders in Q1-3 2024, with 6.2GW delivered [3] Industry Outlook - The railway industry is expected to benefit from the green and low-carbon transformation policies, with the goal of increasing the proportion of electric locomotives to over 70% by 2030 [3] - The power semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the expansion of the new energy vehicle market and the company's increasing production capacity [3]