华鲁恒升：低景气下仍具盈利韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Despite low industry demand, the company demonstrates strong profitability resilience [6] - The company reported a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [2][6] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, but a 32% decrease in net profit compared to the same quarter last year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30% and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% increase [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, which is a 17% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 32% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Product Performance - The company experienced an increase in sales volume for key products such as new energy materials (+19%), fertilizers (+41%), organic amines (+15%), and acetic acid and derivatives (+148%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] - In Q3 2024, the sales volume for these products showed mixed results, with new energy materials (+4%), fertilizers (+35%), organic amines (+14%), and acetic acid and derivatives (+149%) year-on-year, but some products saw a decline in sales volume compared to the previous quarter [6] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company maintains a competitive edge in urea production costs, which are lower than gas-based and most coal-based processes, allowing it to sustain profitability despite price declines [6] - As of Q3 2024, the company has ongoing capital expenditures of approximately 4.4 billion yuan, representing 15% of fixed assets, focusing on coal gasification and amine industry chain projects [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 31.8 billion yuan, 35.7 billion yuan, and 38.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 8% [6] - The projected net profits for the same years are 3.9 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9%, 29%, and 11% [6]